Statistics / Football / Algeria. Ligue 1 / Khenchela vs CS Constantine

Khenchela vs CS Constantine Statistics & Analysis

Khenchela Khenchela
Oct 12, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
CS Constantine CS Constantine
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CS Constantine Khenchela ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10112215

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Khenchela win · Khenchela 2–0 CS Constantine
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.4 percentage points on Khenchela (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on CS Constantine (1X2) by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Khenchela (1X2) 33.4 41.8 -8.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.9 -0.3
CS Constantine (1X2) 37.0 28.4 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on CS Constantine (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: 1xbet br → ggbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Khenchela (1X2) 2.24 2.24 +1.4
Draw (1X2) 2.94 3.13 -0.9
CS Constantine (1X2) 3.13 3.3 -0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Khenchela vs CS Constantine
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Khenchela 1.26 — CS Constantine 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +19.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 USM Alger 3 2 1 0 7
2 CR Belouizdad 3 2 1 0 7
3 MC Oran 2 2 0 0 6
4 Ben Aknoun 3 1 2 0 5
5 CS Constantine 3 1 1 1 4
6 Témouchent 3 1 1 1 4
7 ES Setif 3 1 0 2 3
8 MC Alger 1 1 0 0 3
9 JS El Biar 3 1 0 2 3
10 JS Kabylie 2 1 0 1 3
11 Oued Akbou 3 1 0 2 3
12 MB Rouisset 3 1 0 2 3
13 Khenchela 2 0 2 0 2
14 US Biskra 3 0 2 1 2
15 ASO Chlef 3 0 1 2 1
16 JS Saoura 2 0 1 1 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 USM Alger 3 5 2 +3 7
2 CR Belouizdad 3 5 3 +2 7
3 ES Setif 3 5 3 +2 3
4 CS Constantine 3 5 6 -1 4
5 Ben Aknoun 3 4 3 +1 5
6 JS El Biar 3 4 4 0 3
7 Oued Akbou 3 4 5 -1 3
8 MC Oran 2 3 0 +3 6
9 ASO Chlef 3 3 7 -4 1
10 MC Alger 1 2 0 +2 3
11 Témouchent 3 2 3 -1 4
12 MB Rouisset 3 2 3 -1 3
13 US Biskra 3 2 3 -1 2
14 JS Kabylie 2 1 1 0 3
15 Khenchela 2 1 1 0 2
16 JS Saoura 2 0 4 -4 1
Ligue 1 Algeria. Ligue 1 Predictions