Arzignano Valchiampo vs Albinoleffe Statistics & Analysis

Arzignano Valchiampo

Aug 15, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 78%

Albinoleffe

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3363230

Closing Odds 2.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Arzignano Valchiampo win · Arzignano Valchiampo 2–1 Albinoleffe

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Arzignano Valchiampo (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Arzignano Valchiampo (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Arzignano Valchiampo (1X2)	37.6	35.1	+2.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.5	+1.0
Albinoleffe (1X2)	32.9	36.4	-3.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.2	+1.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.8	-1.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Arzignano Valchiampo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.1%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Arzignano Valchiampo (1X2)	2.61	2.61
Draw (1X2)	3.21	3.21
Albinoleffe (1X2)	2.52	2.52
Over 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0
Under 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Coppa Italia Serie C
Fixture: Arzignano Valchiampo vs Albinoleffe
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Arzignano Valchiampo 1.35 — Albinoleffe 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Arzignano Valchiampo & Albinoleffe!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics