Statistics / Football / Brazil. Cearense U20 / Ceará U20 vs Pague Menos U20

Ceará U20 vs Pague Menos U20 Statistics & Analysis

Ceará U20 Ceará U20
Aug 08, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 85%
Pague Menos U20 Pague Menos U20
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ceará U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3096662

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ceará U20 1–1 Pague Menos U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.34 percentage points on Ceará U20 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pague Menos U20 (1X2) by about 10.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ceará U20 (1X2) 40.0 56.1 -16.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 23.8 +5.7
Pague Menos U20 (1X2) 30.6 20.1 +10.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.3 -10.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.7 +10.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.6% on Pague Menos U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.1%. The difference — about 10.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ceará U20 (1X2) 1.67 1.6 +2.3
Draw (1X2) 3.7 3.78 -0.5
Pague Menos U20 (1X2) 4.1 4.47 -1.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.58 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.25 2.21 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Cearense U20
  • Fixture: Ceará U20 vs Pague Menos U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Ceará U20 1.4 — Pague Menos U20 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Cearense U20 Cearense U20 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 2 3 0 9
2 Ceará U20 3 2 1 0 7
3 Pague Menos U20 4 1 3 0 6
4 Caucaia U20 6 1 2 3 5
5 Horizonte U20 4 1 1 2 4
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 1 0 2 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vila Real FC U20 5 11 3 +8 9
2 Pague Menos U20 4 10 2 +8 6
3 Ceará U20 3 5 3 +2 7
4 Horizonte U20 4 5 8 -3 4
5 Caucaia U20 6 3 5 -2 5
6 Anjos do Céu U20 3 3 8 -5 3
7 Tiangua CE U20 4 1 5 -4 0
Cearense U20 Brazil. Cearense U20 Predictions