Stupčanica Olovo vs Zvijezda Gradačac Statistics & Analysis

Stupčanica Olovo

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 85%

Zvijezda Gradačac

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Stupčanica Olovo Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668924

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Stupčanica Olovo 1–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Stupčanica Olovo vs Zvijezda Gradačac
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Stupčanica Olovo 1.32 — Zvijezda Gradačac 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Travnik	7	7	0	0	21
2	Stupčanica Olovo	7	5	0	2	15
3	GOŠK Gabela	7	5	0	2	15
4	Posušje	7	4	3	0	15
5	Sloboda Tuzla	7	4	2	1	14
6	Igman Konjic	7	3	3	1	12
7	Jedinstvo Bihać	7	2	3	2	9
8	TOŠK Tešanj	7	3	0	4	9
9	Bratstvo Gračanica	7	1	5	1	8
10	Zvijezda Gradačac	7	2	1	4	7
11	Vitez	7	1	3	3	6
12	Budućnost Banovići	7	1	3	3	6
13	Tomislav	7	1	2	4	5
14	Radnik Hadžići	7	1	1	5	4
15	Rudar Kakanj	7	1	1	5	4
16	Čapljina	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stupčanica Olovo	7	18	6	+12	15
2	Sloboda Tuzla	7	15	6	+9	14
3	Jedinstvo Bihać	7	15	9	+6	9
4	Travnik	7	14	3	+11	21
5	GOŠK Gabela	7	10	4	+6	15
6	Posušje	7	9	5	+4	15
7	Igman Konjic	7	9	6	+3	12
8	Bratstvo Gračanica	7	9	9	0	8
9	Budućnost Banovići	7	8	16	-8	6
10	Tomislav	7	8	19	-11	5
11	TOŠK Tešanj	7	7	9	-2	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	7	6	6	0	7
13	Vitez	7	5	9	-4	6
14	Čapljina	7	5	16	-11	4
15	Radnik Hadžići	7	3	9	-6	4
16	Rudar Kakanj	7	3	12	-9	4