Zvijezda Gradačac vs Jedinstvo Bihać Statistics & Analysis

Zvijezda Gradačac

Sep 26, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 60%

Jedinstvo Bihać

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Zvijezda Gradačac Zvijezda Gradačac ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10094170

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Zvijezda Gradačac win · Zvijezda Gradačac 3–1 Jedinstvo Bihać

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Jedinstvo Bihać (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Jedinstvo Bihać (1X2) by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Zvijezda Gradačac (1X2)	39.0	59.6	-20.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	24.2	+5.4
Jedinstvo Bihać (1X2)	31.5	16.2	+15.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	46.0	+2.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.0	-2.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Jedinstvo Bihać (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.2%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Zvijezda Gradačac (1X2)	1.5	1.5
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Jedinstvo Bihać (1X2)	5.5	5.5
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	1.75	1.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1st League - FBiH
Fixture: Zvijezda Gradačac vs Jedinstvo Bihać
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Zvijezda Gradačac 1.38 — Jedinstvo Bihać 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1st League - FBiH — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Travnik	6	6	0	0	18
2	Stupčanica Olovo	6	5	0	1	15
3	GOŠK Gabela	6	5	0	1	15
4	Posušje	6	4	2	0	14
5	Sloboda Tuzla	6	3	2	1	11
6	Igman Konjic	6	3	2	1	11
7	Jedinstvo Bihać	6	2	3	1	9
8	Bratstvo Gračanica	6	1	4	1	7
9	TOŠK Tešanj	6	2	0	4	6
10	Budućnost Banovići	6	1	2	3	5
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	6	1	1	4	4
12	Radnik Hadžići	6	1	1	4	4
13	Čapljina	6	1	1	4	4
14	Tomislav	6	1	1	4	4
15	Vitez	6	0	3	3	3
16	Rudar Kakanj	6	1	0	5	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stupčanica Olovo	6	18	4	+14	15
2	Jedinstvo Bihać	6	14	6	+8	9
3	Travnik	6	13	3	+10	18
4	Sloboda Tuzla	6	13	6	+7	11
5	GOŠK Gabela	6	10	2	+8	15
6	Posušje	6	8	4	+4	14
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	6	8	8	0	7
8	Igman Konjic	6	7	4	+3	11
9	Budućnost Banovići	6	7	15	-8	5
10	Tomislav	6	6	17	-11	4
11	TOŠK Tešanj	6	5	9	-4	6
12	Čapljina	6	5	15	-10	4
13	Vitez	6	4	9	-5	3
14	Zvijezda Gradačac	6	3	5	-2	4
15	Radnik Hadžići	6	3	8	-5	4
16	Rudar Kakanj	6	2	11	-9	3