Statistics / Football / Portugal. 1a Divisão - Women / Sporting Braga vs Marítimo W

Sporting Braga vs Marítimo W Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Braga Sporting Braga
Sep 12, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.51
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 28%
Marítimo W Marítimo W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7464094

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporting Braga win · Sporting Braga 5–0 Marítimo W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1a Divisão - Women
  • Fixture: Sporting Braga vs Marítimo W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Sporting Braga 1.51 — Marítimo W 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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