Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar Statistics & Analysis

Liechtenstein

Oct 05, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 59%

Gibraltar

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Gibraltar Gibraltar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11673661

Closing Odds 3.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Gibraltar win · Liechtenstein 0–2 Gibraltar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Liechtenstein (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Liechtenstein (1X2) by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Liechtenstein (1X2)	33.4	27.5	+5.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.8	-0.2
Gibraltar (1X2)	37.0	42.6	-5.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Liechtenstein (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.5%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE5)
Liechtenstein (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Draw (1X2)	3.0	3.0
Gibraltar (1X2)	2.1	2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies
Fixture: Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Liechtenstein 1.26 — Gibraltar 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 37.6% · Probability edge: +16.9 pts · Est. EV: +42.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Liechtenstein & Gibraltar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics