Statistics / Football / Cambodia. C-League / National Defense vs NagaWorld

National Defense vs NagaWorld Statistics & Analysis

National Defense National Defense
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
4 1.09
5 1.51
xG Accuracy: 17%
NagaWorld NagaWorld
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 NagaWorld NagaWorld ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 4-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8660648

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NagaWorld win · National Defense 4–5 NagaWorld
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: C-League
  • Fixture: National Defense vs NagaWorld
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
  • xG (showing): National Defense 1.09 — NagaWorld 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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C-League C-League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Visakha 3 3 0 0 9
2 Svay Rieng 3 2 1 0 7
3 NagaWorld 3 2 1 0 7
4 Dangkor Senchey 3 1 2 0 5
5 Kompong Dewa 3 1 1 1 4
6 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 3 1 0 2 3
7 Phnom Penh Crown 2 0 2 0 2
8 Angkor Tiger 3 0 2 1 2
9 Boeung Ket 2 0 1 1 1
10 Life Sihanoukville 2 0 0 2 0
11 National Defense 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Visakha 3 10 2 +8 9
2 Dangkor Senchey 3 10 4 +6 5
3 Svay Rieng 3 8 1 +7 7
4 NagaWorld 3 8 6 +2 7
5 National Defense 3 5 15 -10 0
6 Phnom Penh Crown 2 4 4 0 2
7 Boeung Ket 2 4 5 -1 1
8 Angkor Tiger 3 3 4 -1 2
9 Kompong Dewa 3 2 2 0 4
10 Kirivong Sok Sen Chey 3 2 10 -8 3
11 Life Sihanoukville 2 0 3 -3 0