Statistics / Football / Chile. Segunda División / General Velásquez vs Lota Schwager

General Velásquez vs Lota Schwager Statistics & Analysis

General Velásquez General Velásquez
Oct 11, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
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Lota Schwager
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lota Schwager Lota Schwager ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13237969

Closing Odds 3.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lota Schwager win · General Velásquez 1–2 Lota Schwager
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
General Velásquez (1X2) 34.2 35.0 -0.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.8 +0.9
Lota Schwager (1X2) 36.1 36.2 -0.2

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: megapari

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
General Velásquez (1X2) 2.55 2.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Lota Schwager (1X2) 2.46 2.46 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: General Velásquez vs Lota Schwager
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): General Velásquez 1.28 — Lota Schwager 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Provincial Osorno 12 6 6 0 24
2 Municipal Salamanca 12 5 7 0 22
3 Colchagua 12 6 4 2 22
4 Concón National 12 6 3 3 21
5 Santiago City 12 5 5 2 20
6 Linares Unido 12 6 1 5 19
7 Trasandino 12 5 3 4 18
8 General Velásquez 12 5 1 6 16
9 Real San Joaquín 12 3 4 5 13
10 Lota Schwager 12 3 4 5 13
11 Colina 12 3 3 6 12
12 Deportes Rengo 12 3 2 7 11
13 Santiago Morning 12 2 4 6 10
14 Provincial Ovalle 12 1 3 8 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Trasandino 12 19 17 +2 18
2 Santiago City 12 18 19 -1 20
3 Concón National 12 16 10 +6 21
4 Linares Unido 12 16 12 +4 19
5 Real San Joaquín 12 16 17 -1 13
6 Provincial Osorno 12 15 5 +10 24
7 Colchagua 12 15 11 +4 22
8 Colina 12 15 14 +1 12
9 Municipal Salamanca 12 11 5 +6 22
10 Lota Schwager 12 11 13 -2 13
11 General Velásquez 12 11 15 -4 16
12 Provincial Ovalle 12 11 24 -13 6
13 Deportes Rengo 12 10 17 -7 11
14 Santiago Morning 12 9 14 -5 10