Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein / Hennef 05 vs Fortuna Köln II

Hennef 05 vs Fortuna Köln II Statistics & Analysis

Hennef 05 Hennef 05
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Fortuna Köln II Fortuna Köln II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hennef 05 Fortuna Köln II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668730

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fortuna Köln II win · Hennef 05 0–1 Fortuna Köln II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Mittelrhein
  • Fixture: Hennef 05 vs Fortuna Köln II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Hennef 05 1.3 — Fortuna Köln II 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Mittelrhein Oberliga - Mittelrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Wegberg-Beeck 6 5 1 0 16
2 Eintracht Hohkeppel 6 4 1 1 13
3 Fortuna Köln II 5 4 0 1 12
4 Lindenthal-Hohenlind 6 3 2 1 11
5 SSV Merten 6 3 1 2 10
6 Chlodwig Zulpich 6 3 1 2 10
7 Hürth 6 2 3 1 9
8 VfL Vichttal 6 2 2 2 8
9 Frechen 6 2 2 2 8
10 Düren Merzenich 6 2 1 3 7
11 Hennef 05 6 2 1 3 7
12 Bornheim 6 2 0 4 6
13 Porz 6 1 2 3 5
14 Siegburger SV 6 1 2 3 5
15 Neunkirchen-Seelscheid 6 1 1 4 4
16 TuS BW Königsdorf 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SSV Merten 6 19 10 +9 10
2 Eintracht Hohkeppel 6 18 9 +9 13
3 Wegberg-Beeck 6 16 4 +12 16
4 VfL Vichttal 6 16 11 +5 8
5 Chlodwig Zulpich 6 16 17 -1 10
6 Fortuna Köln II 5 13 7 +6 12
7 Lindenthal-Hohenlind 6 12 9 +3 11
8 Frechen 6 12 12 0 8
9 Düren Merzenich 6 12 14 -2 7
10 Bornheim 6 11 16 -5 6
11 Siegburger SV 6 9 14 -5 5
12 Porz 6 7 11 -4 5
13 Neunkirchen-Seelscheid 6 7 11 -4 4
14 Hürth 6 6 5 +1 9
15 Hennef 05 6 6 9 -3 7
16 TuS BW Königsdorf 5 6 27 -21 0
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany. Oberliga - Mittelrhein Predictions