Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf Statistics & Analysis

Düren Merzenich

Oct 02, 2026 - 18:00

5 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 23%

TuS BW Königsdorf

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10979067

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Düren Merzenich win · Düren Merzenich 5–3 TuS BW Königsdorf

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Oberliga - Mittelrhein
Fixture: Düren Merzenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf
Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Düren Merzenich 1.32 — TuS BW Königsdorf 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Oberliga - Mittelrhein — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	5	4	1	0	13
2	Wegberg-Beeck	5	4	1	0	13
3	Fortuna Köln II	4	3	0	1	9
4	VfL Vichttal	5	2	2	1	8
5	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	5	2	2	1	8
6	SSV Merten	5	2	1	2	7
7	Düren Merzenich	6	2	1	3	7
8	Hennef 05	5	2	1	2	7
9	Chlodwig Zulpich	5	2	1	2	7
10	Hürth	5	1	3	1	6
11	Bornheim	5	2	0	3	6
12	Frechen	5	1	2	2	5
13	Siegburger SV	5	1	2	2	5
14	Porz	5	1	2	2	5
15	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	5	1	1	3	4
16	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Eintracht Hohkeppel	5	17	3	+14	13
2	VfL Vichttal	5	16	10	+6	8
3	Wegberg-Beeck	5	15	4	+11	13
4	SSV Merten	5	13	9	+4	7
5	Fortuna Köln II	4	12	7	+5	9
6	Düren Merzenich	6	12	14	-2	7
7	Frechen	5	11	12	-1	5
8	Chlodwig Zulpich	5	11	16	-5	7
9	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	5	10	9	+1	8
10	Bornheim	5	10	11	-1	6
11	Siegburger SV	5	9	12	-3	5
12	Porz	5	7	10	-3	5
13	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	5	7	10	-3	4
14	Hennef 05	5	6	8	-2	7
15	TuS BW Königsdorf	5	6	27	-21	0
16	Hürth	5	5	5	0	6