Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 / Muri-Gümligen vs Concordia Basel

Muri-Gümligen vs Concordia Basel Statistics & Analysis

Muri-Gümligen Muri-Gümligen
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 52%
Concordia Basel Concordia Basel
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Muri-Gümligen Concordia Basel ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11245161

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Concordia Basel win · Muri-Gümligen 2–3 Concordia Basel
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 2
  • Fixture: Muri-Gümligen vs Concordia Basel
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Muri-Gümligen 1.3 — Concordia Basel 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Group 2 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Langenthal 10 7 2 1 23
2 Schötz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Courtételle 10 6 1 3 19
4 Concordia Basel 10 5 2 3 17
5 Delémont 10 5 2 3 17
6 Muttenz 10 5 2 3 17
7 Grasshopper II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Solothurn 9 4 1 4 13
9 Buochs 10 4 1 5 13
10 Muri-Gümligen 10 4 1 5 13
11 Thun II 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Wohlen 10 3 3 4 12
13 Bassecourt 10 3 1 6 10
14 Black Stars 9 1 6 2 9
15 Zug 9 2 1 6 7
16 Münsingen 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schötz 10 28 15 +13 20
2 Langenthal 10 27 18 +9 23
3 Solothurn 9 22 18 +4 13
4 Thun II 10 22 25 -3 12
5 Concordia Basel 10 21 14 +7 17
6 Courtételle 10 20 11 +9 19
7 Muttenz 10 20 16 +4 17
8 Delémont 10 17 10 +7 17
9 Buochs 10 17 19 -2 13
10 Grasshopper II 10 16 17 -1 15
11 Muri-Gümligen 10 11 15 -4 13
12 FC Wohlen 10 11 15 -4 12
13 Bassecourt 10 11 20 -9 10
14 Zug 9 11 22 -11 7
15 Black Stars 9 8 10 -2 9
16 Münsingen 9 7 24 -17 2