Zvijezda 09 vs Leotar Statistics & Analysis

Zvijezda 09

Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.10

4 1.50

xG Accuracy: 49%

Leotar

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Leotar Leotar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8688547

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Leotar win · Zvijezda 09 1–4 Leotar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 1st League - RS
Fixture: Zvijezda 09 vs Leotar
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.8%
xG (showing): Zvijezda 09 1.1 — Leotar 1.5 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 50.9% · Probability edge: +0.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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