Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Segunda División / Zamora FC B vs Urena SC

Zamora FC B vs Urena SC Statistics & Analysis

Zamora FC B Zamora FC B
Aug 03, 2026 - 19:30
2 1.43
2 1.17
xG Accuracy: 68%
Urena SC Urena SC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zamora FC B Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2816757

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Zamora FC B 2–2 Urena SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Zamora FC B (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Zamora FC B (1X2) by about 4.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Zamora FC B (1X2) 41.4 37.4 +4.0
Draw (1X2) 29.4 28.3 +1.0
Urena SC (1X2) 29.3 34.3 -5.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.0 +1.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.0 -1.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.4% on Zamora FC B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.4%. The difference — about 4.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Zamora FC B (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.14 3.14 0.0
Urena SC (1X2) 2.59 2.59 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.97 1.97 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Zamora FC B vs Urena SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Zamora FC B 1.43 — Urena SC 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Lara 27 18 6 3 60
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 14 8 5 50
3 Urena SC 28 12 9 7 45
4 Yaracuyanos FC 27 11 7 9 40
5 Zamora FC B 27 11 7 9 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 9 7 12 34
7 Puerto Cabello II 28 8 7 13 31
8 Club Atletico Barinas 28 9 4 15 31
9 Real Frontera 28 3 3 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Club Atletico Barinas 28 49 59 -10 31
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 48 27 +21 50
3 Deportivo Lara 27 46 20 +26 60
4 Zamora FC B 27 42 36 +6 40
5 Urena SC 28 41 34 +7 45
6 Puerto Cabello II 28 36 40 -4 31
7 Yaracuyanos FC 27 34 27 +7 40
8 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 32 45 -13 34
9 Real Frontera 28 22 62 -40 12
Segunda División Venezuela. Segunda División Predictions