Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / Winterthur II vs St. Gallen II

Winterthur II vs St. Gallen II Statistics & Analysis

Winterthur II Winterthur II
Oct 04, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
St. Gallen II St. Gallen II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Winterthur II St. Gallen II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11677011

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St. Gallen II win · Winterthur II 1–2 St. Gallen II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3
  • Fixture: Winterthur II vs St. Gallen II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Winterthur II 1.39 — St. Gallen II 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tuggen 9 6 2 1 20
2 Taverne 9 5 2 2 17
3 Thalwil 9 4 4 1 16
4 Baden 9 5 1 3 16
5 St. Gallen II 8 5 1 2 16
6 Collina d'Oro 9 4 2 3 14
7 Kosova 8 3 4 1 13
8 Dietikon 8 3 2 3 11
9 Gossau 9 3 2 4 11
10 Winterthur II 7 3 0 4 9
11 Freienbach 8 2 3 3 9
12 Mendrisio 9 1 5 3 8
13 Locarno 9 1 4 4 7
14 Eschen / Mauren 7 2 1 4 7
15 Wettswil-Bonstetten 9 1 3 5 6
16 Widnau 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Taverne 9 24 13 +11 17
2 Tuggen 9 20 9 +11 20
3 Baden 9 19 14 +5 16
4 St. Gallen II 8 18 15 +3 16
5 Thalwil 9 16 9 +7 16
6 Kosova 8 14 11 +3 13
7 Dietikon 8 12 13 -1 11
8 Gossau 9 12 17 -5 11
9 Mendrisio 9 11 13 -2 8
10 Locarno 9 11 13 -2 7
11 Freienbach 8 11 14 -3 9
12 Winterthur II 7 9 9 0 9
13 Wettswil-Bonstetten 9 9 15 -6 6
14 Collina d'Oro 9 8 9 -1 14
15 Eschen / Mauren 7 8 15 -7 7
16 Widnau 9 4 17 -13 5
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Predictions