Statistics / Football / Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 / Widnau vs Mendrisio

Widnau vs Mendrisio Statistics & Analysis

Widnau Widnau
Aug 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Mendrisio Mendrisio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mendrisio Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3603474

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Widnau 1–1 Mendrisio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3
  • Fixture: Widnau vs Mendrisio
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Widnau 1.29 — Mendrisio 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tuggen 8 6 1 1 19
2 Baden 7 5 1 1 16
3 St. Gallen II 8 5 1 2 16
4 Thalwil 8 4 3 1 15
5 Taverne 8 4 2 2 14
6 Kosova 8 3 4 1 13
7 Dietikon 8 3 2 3 11
8 Collina d'Oro 8 3 2 3 11
9 Winterthur II 7 3 0 4 9
10 Gossau 8 2 2 4 8
11 Mendrisio 8 1 4 3 7
12 Eschen / Mauren 7 2 1 4 7
13 Freienbach 7 1 3 3 6
14 Wettswil-Bonstetten 8 1 3 4 6
15 Widnau 7 1 2 4 5
16 Locarno 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Taverne 8 21 11 +10 14
2 Tuggen 8 19 8 +11 19
3 St. Gallen II 8 18 15 +3 16
4 Baden 7 16 8 +8 16
5 Thalwil 8 14 7 +7 15
6 Kosova 8 14 11 +3 13
7 Dietikon 8 12 13 -1 11
8 Mendrisio 8 10 12 -2 7
9 Freienbach 7 10 14 -4 6
10 Winterthur II 7 9 9 0 9
11 Wettswil-Bonstetten 8 9 14 -5 6
12 Eschen / Mauren 7 8 15 -7 7
13 Gossau 8 8 16 -8 8
14 Collina d'Oro 8 7 9 -2 11
15 Locarno 7 6 10 -4 3
16 Widnau 7 3 12 -9 5
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland. 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Predictions