Burnley W vs Bristol City W Statistics & Analysis

Burnley W

Sep 26, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Bristol City W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Bristol City W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10080914

Closing Odds 1.58

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Burnley W 0–0 Bristol City W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Burnley W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Burnley W (1X2)	33.4	20.2	+13.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.5	+7.1
Bristol City W (1X2)	37.0	57.3	-20.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.0	-13.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.0	+13.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.0%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Burnley W (1X2)	4.47	4.47
Draw (1X2)	4.02	4.02
Bristol City W (1X2)	1.58	1.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.43	2.43

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Women's Championship
Fixture: Burnley W vs Bristol City W
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Burnley W 1.26 — Bristol City W 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Women's Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Newcastle United W	3	3	0	0	9
2	Sunderland W	3	2	1	0	7
3	Wolverhampton W	3	2	0	1	6
4	Leicester City WFC	3	2	0	1	6
5	Southampton W	3	1	2	0	5
6	Nottingham Forest W	3	1	2	0	5
7	Ipswich Town W	3	1	2	0	5
8	Bristol City W	4	1	1	2	4
9	Watford W	3	0	2	1	2
10	Burnley W	4	0	2	2	2
11	Durham W	3	0	0	3	0
12	Sheffield United W	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Newcastle United W	3	7	1	+6	9
2	Sunderland W	3	6	2	+4	7
3	Wolverhampton W	3	6	3	+3	6
4	Bristol City W	4	6	6	0	4
5	Leicester City WFC	3	5	3	+2	6
6	Nottingham Forest W	3	5	4	+1	5
7	Durham W	3	4	9	-5	0
8	Southampton W	3	3	1	+2	5
9	Watford W	3	3	7	-4	2
10	Ipswich Town W	3	2	1	+1	5
11	Sheffield United W	3	2	8	-6	0
12	Burnley W	4	1	5	-4	2