Statistics / Football / England. Women's Championship / Leicester City WFC vs Ipswich Town W

Leicester City WFC vs Ipswich Town W Statistics & Analysis

Leicester City WFC Leicester City WFC
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ipswich Town W Ipswich Town W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leicester City WFC Ipswich Town W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679923

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ipswich Town W win · Leicester City WFC 0–1 Ipswich Town W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ipswich Town W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ipswich Town W (1X2) by about 17.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Leicester City WFC (1X2) 37.6 65.0 -27.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.8 +9.8
Ipswich Town W (1X2) 32.9 15.3 +17.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.1 -8.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.9 +8.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Ipswich Town W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.3%. The difference — about 17.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Leicester City WFC (1X2) 1.39 1.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.57 4.57 0.0
Ipswich Town W (1X2) 5.91 5.91 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.63 1.63 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.17 2.17 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Women's Championship
  • Fixture: Leicester City WFC vs Ipswich Town W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Leicester City WFC 1.35 — Ipswich Town W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Women's Championship Women's Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Newcastle United W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Sunderland W 3 2 1 0 7
3 Wolverhampton W 3 2 0 1 6
4 Leicester City WFC 3 2 0 1 6
5 Southampton W 3 1 2 0 5
6 Nottingham Forest W 3 1 2 0 5
7 Ipswich Town W 3 1 2 0 5
8 Bristol City W 4 1 1 2 4
9 Watford W 3 0 2 1 2
10 Burnley W 4 0 2 2 2
11 Durham W 3 0 0 3 0
12 Sheffield United W 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Newcastle United W 3 7 1 +6 9
2 Sunderland W 3 6 2 +4 7
3 Wolverhampton W 3 6 3 +3 6
4 Bristol City W 4 6 6 0 4
5 Leicester City WFC 3 5 3 +2 6
6 Nottingham Forest W 3 5 4 +1 5
7 Durham W 3 4 9 -5 0
8 Southampton W 3 3 1 +2 5
9 Watford W 3 3 7 -4 2
10 Ipswich Town W 3 2 1 +1 5
11 Sheffield United W 3 2 8 -6 0
12 Burnley W 4 1 5 -4 2
Women's Championship England. Women's Championship Predictions