Leicester City WFC vs Durham W Statistics & Analysis

Leicester City WFC

Sep 13, 2026 - 14:00

4 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 39%

Durham W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Leicester City WFC Leicester City WFC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7444708

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Leicester City WFC win · Leicester City WFC 4–2 Durham W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Durham W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Durham W (1X2) by about 22.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leicester City WFC (1X2)	37.0	71.4	-34.4
Draw (1X2)	29.6	17.4	+12.2
Durham W (1X2)	33.4	11.2	+22.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.7	-9.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.3	+9.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Durham W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.2%. The difference — about 22.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Leicester City WFC (1X2)	1.27	1.27
Draw (1X2)	5.22	5.22
Durham W (1X2)	8.08	8.08
Over 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	2.2	2.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Leicester City WFC; market prices Leicester City WFC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Leicester City WFC 1.34 xG vs Durham W 1.26 → Leicester City WFC 37.1%
Market: Leicester City WFC ~71.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Women's Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Newcastle United W	2	2	0	0	6
2	Sunderland W	1	1	0	0	3
3	Southampton W	1	1	0	0	3
4	Leicester City WFC	1	1	0	0	3
5	Nottingham Forest W	1	0	1	0	1
6	Ipswich Town W	1	0	1	0	1
7	Watford W	1	0	1	0	1
8	Burnley W	1	0	1	0	1
9	Sheffield United W	1	0	0	1	0
10	Durham W	1	0	0	1	0
11	Wolverhampton W	1	0	0	1	0
12	Bristol City W	2	0	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sunderland W	1	4	1	+3	3
2	Newcastle United W	2	3	0	+3	6
3	Southampton W	1	3	1	+2	3
4	Leicester City WFC	1	1	0	+1	3
5	Nottingham Forest W	1	1	1	0	1
6	Ipswich Town W	1	1	1	0	1
7	Durham W	1	1	3	-2	0
8	Bristol City W	2	1	5	-4	0
9	Watford W	1	0	0	0	1
10	Burnley W	1	0	0	0	1
11	Sheffield United W	1	0	1	-1	0
12	Wolverhampton W	1	0	2	-2	0