Statistics / Football / England. Women's Championship / Ipswich Town W vs Nottingham Forest W

Ipswich Town W vs Nottingham Forest W Statistics & Analysis

Ipswich Town W Ipswich Town W
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
Nottingham Forest W Nottingham Forest W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ipswich Town W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6356127

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ipswich Town W 1–1 Nottingham Forest W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ipswich Town W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ipswich Town W (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ipswich Town W (1X2) 35.6 30.1 +5.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.2 +1.4
Nottingham Forest W (1X2) 34.7 41.7 -7.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.0 -1.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.0 +1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Ipswich Town W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.1%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Ipswich Town W (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0
Nottingham Forest W (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Women's Championship
  • Fixture: Ipswich Town W vs Nottingham Forest W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Ipswich Town W 1.31 — Nottingham Forest W 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Women's Championship Women's Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Newcastle United W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Sunderland W 3 2 1 0 7
3 Wolverhampton W 3 2 0 1 6
4 Leicester City WFC 3 2 0 1 6
5 Southampton W 3 1 2 0 5
6 Nottingham Forest W 3 1 2 0 5
7 Ipswich Town W 3 1 2 0 5
8 Bristol City W 4 1 1 2 4
9 Watford W 3 0 2 1 2
10 Burnley W 4 0 2 2 2
11 Durham W 3 0 0 3 0
12 Sheffield United W 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Newcastle United W 3 7 1 +6 9
2 Sunderland W 3 6 2 +4 7
3 Wolverhampton W 3 6 3 +3 6
4 Bristol City W 4 6 6 0 4
5 Leicester City WFC 3 5 3 +2 6
6 Nottingham Forest W 3 5 4 +1 5
7 Durham W 3 4 9 -5 0
8 Southampton W 3 3 1 +2 5
9 Watford W 3 3 7 -4 2
10 Ipswich Town W 3 2 1 +1 5
11 Sheffield United W 3 2 8 -6 0
12 Burnley W 4 1 5 -4 2
Women's Championship England. Women's Championship Predictions