Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone C / Potenza vs AZ Picerno

Potenza vs AZ Picerno Statistics & Analysis

Potenza Potenza
Oct 04, 2026 - 18:30
4 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
AZ Picerno AZ Picerno
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Potenza Potenza ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11686655

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Potenza win · Potenza 4–2 AZ Picerno
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C - Girone C
  • Fixture: Potenza vs AZ Picerno
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Potenza 1.32 — AZ Picerno 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone C Serie C - Girone C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sorrento 8 6 0 2 18
2 Potenza 7 5 1 1 16
3 Bari 7 5 1 1 16
4 Catania 8 4 1 3 13
5 AZ Picerno 7 4 0 3 12
6 SS Monopoli 8 3 3 2 12
7 Casertana 8 3 3 2 12
8 Cavese 8 3 2 3 11
9 Audace Cerignola 7 3 1 3 10
10 Scafatese 7 2 4 1 10
11 Inter U23 6 3 1 2 10
12 Casarano 8 3 1 4 10
13 Salernitana 7 2 3 2 9
14 Foggia 7 2 2 3 8
15 Savoia 8 1 4 3 7
16 Barletta 8 1 4 3 7
17 Giugliano 7 2 1 4 7
18 Team Altamura 7 2 1 4 7
19 Cosenza 7 0 2 5 2
20 Crotone 8 1 3 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Potenza 7 17 9 +8 16
2 Catania 8 14 10 +4 13
3 AZ Picerno 7 14 11 +3 12
4 Cavese 8 14 14 0 11
5 Sorrento 8 12 7 +5 18
6 Casertana 8 12 12 0 12
7 Giugliano 7 12 16 -4 7
8 Audace Cerignola 7 11 7 +4 10
9 Inter U23 6 11 11 0 10
10 Barletta 8 11 14 -3 7
11 Bari 7 10 4 +6 16
12 Scafatese 7 10 9 +1 10
13 Salernitana 7 10 9 +1 9
14 Casarano 8 10 13 -3 10
15 Savoia 8 9 11 -2 7
16 Crotone 8 8 12 -4 0
17 SS Monopoli 8 6 4 +2 12
18 Foggia 7 6 7 -1 8
19 Cosenza 7 5 16 -11 2
20 Team Altamura 7 4 10 -6 7
Serie C - Girone C Italy. Serie C - Girone C Predictions