Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone B / Reggiana vs Spezia

Reggiana vs Spezia Statistics & Analysis

Reggiana Reggiana
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.26
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Spezia Spezia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spezia Spezia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11682085

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spezia win · Reggiana 0–1 Spezia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C - Girone B
  • Fixture: Reggiana vs Spezia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 38.4%
  • xG (showing): Reggiana 1.26 — Spezia 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.65)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.6% · Over 2.5 49.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.4% · No 44.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone B Serie C - Girone B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spezia 7 6 1 0 19
2 Ravenna 7 5 2 0 17
3 Grosseto 8 4 3 1 15
4 Reggiana 7 4 2 1 14
5 Livorno 8 4 2 2 14
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 13
7 Città di Campobasso 7 3 2 2 11
8 Torres 7 3 2 2 11
9 Pescara 8 3 2 3 11
10 Forli 8 2 4 2 10
11 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 7 2 3 2 9
12 Atalanta II 6 3 0 3 9
13 Vado 8 2 2 4 8
14 Ostia Mare 7 2 1 4 7
15 Pineto 7 1 4 2 7
16 Gubbio 8 2 1 5 7
17 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 5
18 Latina 6 1 2 3 5
19 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 4
20 Pianese 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spezia 7 14 4 +10 19
2 Grosseto 8 14 7 +7 15
3 Forli 8 13 12 +1 10
4 Ravenna 7 12 2 +10 17
5 Reggiana 7 12 6 +6 14
6 Città di Campobasso 7 11 10 +1 11
7 Sambenedettese 8 11 14 -3 5
8 Livorno 8 10 9 +1 14
9 Pescara 8 10 11 -1 11
10 Gubbio 8 10 16 -6 7
11 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 7 9 7 +2 9
12 Perugia 8 9 12 -3 13
13 Torres 7 8 8 0 11
14 Ostia Mare 7 8 9 -1 7
15 Vis Pesaro 7 8 16 -8 4
16 Atalanta II 6 7 9 -2 9
17 Vado 8 6 8 -2 8
18 Pineto 7 6 10 -4 7
19 Latina 6 5 8 -3 5
20 Pianese 7 4 9 -5 3
Serie C - Girone B Italy. Serie C - Girone B Predictions