Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Pergolettese vs Athletic Carpi

Pergolettese vs Athletic Carpi Statistics & Analysis

Pergolettese Pergolettese
Oct 10, 2026 - 12:30
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Athletic Carpi Pergolettese ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13204813

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pergolettese win · Pergolettese 2–1 Athletic Carpi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Pergolettese vs Athletic Carpi
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Pergolettese 1.28 — Athletic Carpi 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.9% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 9 8 0 1 24
2 Union Brescia 9 5 4 0 19
3 Arzignano Valchiampo 9 5 2 2 17
4 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 15
5 Trento 8 3 5 0 14
6 Treviso 8 3 4 1 13
7 Desenzano Calvina 9 3 4 2 13
8 Albinoleffe 9 3 3 3 12
9 Alcione 8 2 5 1 11
10 Lumezzane 8 3 2 3 11
11 Pergolettese 9 2 5 2 11
12 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 2 4 3 10
13 Novara 9 2 3 4 9
14 PRO Vercelli 9 2 3 4 9
15 Lecco 8 2 3 3 9
16 Athletic Carpi 9 1 3 5 6
17 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 6
18 Juventus U23 8 1 3 4 6
19 Giana Erminio 8 0 4 4 4
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 9 16 4 +12 24
2 Union Brescia 9 16 6 +10 19
3 Ospitaletto 8 14 6 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 9 14 10 +4 17
5 Albinoleffe 9 14 13 +1 12
6 Alcione 8 12 13 -1 11
7 Trento 8 11 5 +6 14
8 Athletic Carpi 9 11 19 -8 6
9 Lumezzane 8 10 11 -1 11
10 Folgore Caratese 8 9 12 -3 6
11 Treviso 8 8 6 +2 13
12 Desenzano Calvina 9 8 7 +1 13
13 Novara 9 8 12 -4 9
14 PRO Vercelli 9 8 13 -5 9
15 Juventus U23 8 8 15 -7 6
16 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 7 9 -2 10
17 Lecco 8 6 8 -2 9
18 Giana Erminio 8 6 10 -4 4
19 Renate 8 6 12 -6 3
20 Pergolettese 9 5 6 -1 11
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions