Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Novara vs Cittadella

Novara vs Cittadella Statistics & Analysis

Novara Novara
Oct 10, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Cittadella Cittadella
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Novara Cittadella ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13242835

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cittadella win · Novara 0–2 Cittadella
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Novara vs Cittadella
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Novara 1.36 — Cittadella 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 9 8 0 1 24
2 Union Brescia 9 5 4 0 19
3 Arzignano Valchiampo 9 5 2 2 17
4 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 15
5 Trento 8 3 5 0 14
6 Treviso 8 3 4 1 13
7 Desenzano Calvina 9 3 4 2 13
8 Albinoleffe 9 3 3 3 12
9 Alcione 8 2 5 1 11
10 Lumezzane 8 3 2 3 11
11 Pergolettese 9 2 5 2 11
12 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 2 4 3 10
13 Novara 9 2 3 4 9
14 PRO Vercelli 9 2 3 4 9
15 Lecco 8 2 3 3 9
16 Athletic Carpi 9 1 3 5 6
17 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 6
18 Juventus U23 8 1 3 4 6
19 Giana Erminio 8 0 4 4 4
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 9 16 4 +12 24
2 Union Brescia 9 16 6 +10 19
3 Ospitaletto 8 14 6 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 9 14 10 +4 17
5 Albinoleffe 9 14 13 +1 12
6 Alcione 8 12 13 -1 11
7 Trento 8 11 5 +6 14
8 Athletic Carpi 9 11 19 -8 6
9 Lumezzane 8 10 11 -1 11
10 Folgore Caratese 8 9 12 -3 6
11 Treviso 8 8 6 +2 13
12 Desenzano Calvina 9 8 7 +1 13
13 Novara 9 8 12 -4 9
14 PRO Vercelli 9 8 13 -5 9
15 Juventus U23 8 8 15 -7 6
16 Dolomiti Bellunesi 9 7 9 -2 10
17 Lecco 8 6 8 -2 9
18 Giana Erminio 8 6 10 -4 4
19 Renate 8 6 12 -6 3
20 Pergolettese 9 5 6 -1 11
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions