Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina

Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina Statistics & Analysis

Folgore Caratese Folgore Caratese
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Desenzano Calvina Desenzano Calvina
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Folgore Caratese Desenzano Calvina ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11259634

Closing Odds 3.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Desenzano Calvina win · Folgore Caratese 1–2 Desenzano Calvina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Desenzano Calvina (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Desenzano Calvina (1X2) by about 9.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Folgore Caratese (1X2) 36.1 43.2 -7.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 31.6 -1.9
Desenzano Calvina (1X2) 34.2 25.3 +9.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 40.7 +7.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 59.3 -7.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Desenzano Calvina (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 9.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Folgore Caratese (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.94 2.94 0.0
Desenzano Calvina (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Folgore Caratese 1.32 — Desenzano Calvina 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 15
3 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 4 2 2 14
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Albinoleffe 8 3 3 2 12
7 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
8 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 10
11 PRO Vercelli 8 2 3 3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
13 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
14 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 8
15 Athletic Carpi 8 1 3 4 6
16 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 6
17 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
18 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 8 14 4 +10 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 14 6 +8 15
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 12 9 +3 14
5 Albinoleffe 8 12 10 +2 12
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 8 10 17 -7 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Folgore Caratese 8 9 12 -3 6
10 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
11 PRO Vercelli 8 8 11 -3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
13 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
14 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
15 Desenzano Calvina 8 6 7 -1 10
16 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
17 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
18 Renate 8 6 12 -6 3
19 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
20 Pergolettese 8 3 5 -2 8
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions