Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara Statistics & Analysis

Dolomiti Bellunesi Dolomiti Bellunesi
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.19
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 81%
Novara Novara
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Novara Novara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11682013

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Novara win · Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–2 Novara
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.19 — Novara 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.2% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +13.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 15
3 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 4 2 2 14
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Albinoleffe 8 3 3 2 12
7 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
8 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 10
11 PRO Vercelli 8 2 3 3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
13 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
14 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 8
15 Athletic Carpi 8 1 3 4 6
16 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 6
17 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
18 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 8 14 4 +10 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 14 6 +8 15
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 12 9 +3 14
5 Albinoleffe 8 12 10 +2 12
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 8 10 17 -7 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Folgore Caratese 8 9 12 -3 6
10 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
11 PRO Vercelli 8 8 11 -3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
13 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
14 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
15 Desenzano Calvina 8 6 7 -1 10
16 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
17 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
18 Renate 8 6 12 -6 3
19 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
20 Pergolettese 8 3 5 -2 8
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions