Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Alcione vs Trento

Alcione vs Trento Statistics & Analysis

Alcione Alcione
Oct 04, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.22
2 1.38
xG Accuracy: 68%
Trento Trento
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trento Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11686484

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Alcione 2–2 Trento
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Alcione vs Trento
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Alcione 1.22 — Trento 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 15
3 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 4 2 2 14
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Albinoleffe 8 3 3 2 12
7 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
8 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 10
11 PRO Vercelli 8 2 3 3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
13 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
14 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 8
15 Athletic Carpi 8 1 3 4 6
16 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 6
17 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
18 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 8 14 4 +10 21
2 Ospitaletto 8 14 6 +8 15
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 8 12 9 +3 14
5 Albinoleffe 8 12 10 +2 12
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 8 10 17 -7 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Folgore Caratese 8 9 12 -3 6
10 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
11 PRO Vercelli 8 8 11 -3 9
12 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
13 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
14 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
15 Desenzano Calvina 8 6 7 -1 10
16 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
17 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
18 Renate 8 6 12 -6 3
19 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
20 Pergolettese 8 3 5 -2 8
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions