Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Juventus U23 vs Albinoleffe

Juventus U23 vs Albinoleffe Statistics & Analysis

Juventus U23 Juventus U23
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:30
3 1.32
5 1.28
xG Accuracy: 23%
Albinoleffe Albinoleffe
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Juventus U23 Albinoleffe ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662136

Closing Odds 3.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Albinoleffe win · Juventus U23 3–5 Albinoleffe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Albinoleffe (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Albinoleffe (1X2) by about 3.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Juventus U23 (1X2) 36.1 39.5 -3.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 29.8 -0.1
Albinoleffe (1X2) 34.2 30.7 +3.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.4 +1.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.6 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Albinoleffe (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.7%. The difference — about 3.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Juventus U23 (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Albinoleffe (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Juventus U23 vs Albinoleffe
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Juventus U23 1.32 — Albinoleffe 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 7 7 0 0 21
2 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
3 Ospitaletto 7 4 2 1 14
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 4 1 2 13
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
8 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
9 Albinoleffe 7 2 3 2 9
10 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
11 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
12 Desenzano Calvina 7 1 4 2 7
13 Pergolettese 7 1 4 2 7
14 Athletic Carpi 7 1 3 3 6
15 Folgore Caratese 7 1 3 3 6
16 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
17 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
18 PRO Vercelli 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 7 13 2 +11 21
2 Ospitaletto 7 13 5 +8 14
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 10 7 +3 13
5 Albinoleffe 7 10 9 +1 9
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 7 10 15 -5 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
10 Folgore Caratese 7 8 10 -2 6
11 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
13 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
14 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
15 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
16 PRO Vercelli 7 6 11 -5 6
17 Renate 7 5 11 -6 2
18 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
19 Desenzano Calvina 7 4 6 -2 7
20 Pergolettese 7 1 3 -2 7
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions