Statistics / Football / Italy. Serie C - Girone A / Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Albinoleffe

Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Albinoleffe Statistics & Analysis

Dolomiti Bellunesi Dolomiti Bellunesi
Sep 13, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 49%
Albinoleffe Albinoleffe
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Albinoleffe Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7435441

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Dolomiti Bellunesi 0–0 Albinoleffe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.32 percentage points on Albinoleffe (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dolomiti Bellunesi (1X2) 31.5 33.1 -1.6
Draw (1X2) 29.5 31.7 -2.2
Albinoleffe (1X2) 39.0 35.2 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 38.9 +9.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.1 -9.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.9%. The difference — about 9.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dolomiti Bellunesi (1X2) 2.7 2.84 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 2.92 2.96 -0.0
Albinoleffe (1X2) 2.74 2.67 +1.3
Over 2.5 goals 2.4 2.42 -0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.53 1.54 +0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie C - Girone A
  • Fixture: Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Albinoleffe
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.22 — Albinoleffe 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 39.9% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A Serie C - Girone A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cittadella 7 7 0 0 21
2 Union Brescia 7 4 3 0 15
3 Ospitaletto 7 4 2 1 14
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 4 1 2 13
5 Trento 7 3 4 0 13
6 Treviso 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alcione 7 2 4 1 10
8 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 2 4 1 10
9 Albinoleffe 7 2 3 2 9
10 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 8
11 Lecco 7 2 2 3 8
12 Desenzano Calvina 7 1 4 2 7
13 Pergolettese 7 1 4 2 7
14 Athletic Carpi 7 1 3 3 6
15 Folgore Caratese 7 1 3 3 6
16 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 6
17 Novara 7 1 3 3 6
18 PRO Vercelli 7 1 3 3 6
19 Giana Erminio 7 0 3 4 3
20 Renate 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cittadella 7 13 2 +11 21
2 Ospitaletto 7 13 5 +8 14
3 Union Brescia 7 12 4 +8 15
4 Arzignano Valchiampo 7 10 7 +3 13
5 Albinoleffe 7 10 9 +1 9
6 Alcione 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Athletic Carpi 7 10 15 -5 6
8 Trento 7 9 3 +6 13
9 Treviso 7 8 6 +2 12
10 Folgore Caratese 7 8 10 -2 6
11 Lumezzane 7 7 9 -2 8
12 Juventus U23 7 7 13 -6 6
13 Dolomiti Bellunesi 7 6 5 +1 10
14 Novara 7 6 9 -3 6
15 Giana Erminio 7 6 10 -4 3
16 PRO Vercelli 7 6 11 -5 6
17 Renate 7 5 11 -6 2
18 Lecco 7 4 6 -2 8
19 Desenzano Calvina 7 4 6 -2 7
20 Pergolettese 7 1 3 -2 7
Serie C - Girone A Italy. Serie C - Girone A Predictions