Novara vs Folgore Caratese Statistics & Analysis

Novara

Aug 31, 2026 - 18:30

2 1.35

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 68%

Folgore Caratese

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Novara Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5404913

Closing Odds 3.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Novara 2–2 Folgore Caratese

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.81 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Novara (1X2)	37.6	40.5	-2.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	31.6	-2.1
Folgore Caratese (1X2)	32.9	27.9	+5.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	38.7	+9.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	61.3	-9.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Novara (1X2)	2.3	2.32	+0.5
Draw (1X2)	2.89	2.97	-0.2
Folgore Caratese (1X2)	3.28	3.37	-0.2
Over 2.5 goals	2.46	2.44	+0.8
Under 2.5 goals	1.5	1.54	-0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie C - Girone A
Fixture: Novara vs Folgore Caratese
Kickoff: 2026-08-31 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Novara 1.35 — Folgore Caratese 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	15
3	Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	14
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	4	1	2	13
5	Trento	7	3	4	0	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alcione	7	2	4	1	10
8	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	8
12	Desenzano Calvina	7	1	4	2	7
13	Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	7
14	Athletic Carpi	7	1	3	3	6
15	Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	6
16	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	6
17	Novara	7	1	3	3	6
18	PRO Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	13	2	+11	21
2	Ospitaletto	7	13	5	+8	14
3	Union Brescia	7	12	4	+8	15
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	10	7	+3	13
5	Albinoleffe	7	10	9	+1	9
6	Alcione	7	10	11	-1	10
7	Athletic Carpi	7	10	15	-5	6
8	Trento	7	9	3	+6	13
9	Treviso	7	8	6	+2	12
10	Folgore Caratese	7	8	10	-2	6
11	Lumezzane	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Juventus U23	7	7	13	-6	6
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	6	5	+1	10
14	Novara	7	6	9	-3	6
15	Giana Erminio	7	6	10	-4	3
16	PRO Vercelli	7	6	11	-5	6
17	Renate	7	5	11	-6	2
18	Lecco	7	4	6	-2	8
19	Desenzano Calvina	7	4	6	-2	7
20	Pergolettese	7	1	3	-2	7