De Graafschap U21 vs Groningen U21 Statistics & Analysis

De Graafschap U21

Aug 29, 2026 - 10:30

1 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 73%

Groningen U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 De Graafschap U21 Groningen U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5135232

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Groningen U21 win · De Graafschap U21 1–2 Groningen U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: U21 Divisie 1
Fixture: De Graafschap U21 vs Groningen U21
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): De Graafschap U21 1.37 — Groningen U21 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

U21 Divisie 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	4	4	0	0	12
2	De Graafschap U21	4	3	0	1	9
3	Cambuur U21	4	2	1	1	7
4	Groningen U21	4	2	1	1	7
5	PEC Zwolle U21	4	2	0	2	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles U21	4	0	2	2	2
7	Willem II U21	4	0	1	3	1
8	Twente / Heracles U21	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	4	14	3	+11	12
2	Cambuur U21	4	12	5	+7	7
3	Groningen U21	4	8	6	+2	7
4	De Graafschap U21	4	7	3	+4	9
5	PEC Zwolle U21	4	5	7	-2	6
6	Willem II U21	4	5	9	-4	1
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	4	4	12	-8	2
8	Twente / Heracles U21	4	2	12	-10	1