Groningen U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 Statistics & Analysis

Groningen U21

Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 33%

Twente / Heracles U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Twente / Heracles U21 Groningen U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6134158

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Groningen U21 win · Groningen U21 4–0 Twente / Heracles U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: U21 Divisie 1
Fixture: Groningen U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Groningen U21 1.28 — Twente / Heracles U21 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

U21 Divisie 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	L	PTS
1	Cambuur U21	1	1	0	3
2	Feyenoord U21	1	1	0	3
3	Groningen U21	1	1	0	3
4	PEC Zwolle U21	1	1	0	3
5	De Graafschap U21	1	0	1	0
6	Willem II U21	1	0	1	0
7	Twente / Heracles U21	1	0	1	0
8	Go Ahead Eagles U21	1	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cambuur U21	1	5	0	+5	3
2	Feyenoord U21	1	3	0	+3	3
3	Groningen U21	1	2	1	+1	3
4	PEC Zwolle U21	1	1	0	+1	3
5	De Graafschap U21	1	1	2	-1	0
6	Willem II U21	1	0	1	-1	0
7	Twente / Heracles U21	1	0	3	-3	0
8	Go Ahead Eagles U21	1	0	5	-5	0