Groningen U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21 Statistics & Analysis

Groningen U21

Sep 12, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.33

3 1.27

xG Accuracy: 43%

PEC Zwolle U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Groningen U21 PEC Zwolle U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7428750

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result PEC Zwolle U21 win · Groningen U21 0–3 PEC Zwolle U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: U21 Divisie 1
Fixture: Groningen U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Groningen U21 1.33 — PEC Zwolle U21 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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U21 Divisie 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	4	4	0	0	12
2	De Graafschap U21	4	3	0	1	9
3	Cambuur U21	4	2	1	1	7
4	Groningen U21	4	2	1	1	7
5	PEC Zwolle U21	4	2	0	2	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles U21	4	0	2	2	2
7	Willem II U21	4	0	1	3	1
8	Twente / Heracles U21	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	4	14	3	+11	12
2	Cambuur U21	4	12	5	+7	7
3	Groningen U21	4	8	6	+2	7
4	De Graafschap U21	4	7	3	+4	9
5	PEC Zwolle U21	4	5	7	-2	6
6	Willem II U21	4	5	9	-4	1
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	4	4	12	-8	2
8	Twente / Heracles U21	4	2	12	-10	1