Statistics / Football / Netherlands. U21 Divisie 1 / Willem II U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21

Willem II U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 Statistics & Analysis

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Willem II U21
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
Twente / Heracles U21 Twente / Heracles U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Willem II U21 Twente / Heracles U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13212996

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Twente / Heracles U21 win · Willem II U21 1–3 Twente / Heracles U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: U21 Divisie 1
  • Fixture: Willem II U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Willem II U21 1.31 — Twente / Heracles U21 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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U21 Divisie 1 U21 Divisie 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Feyenoord U21 4 4 0 0 12
2 De Graafschap U21 5 3 0 2 9
3 PEC Zwolle U21 5 3 0 2 9
4 Cambuur U21 4 2 1 1 7
5 Groningen U21 4 2 1 1 7
6 Twente / Heracles U21 5 1 1 3 4
7 Go Ahead Eagles U21 5 0 2 3 2
8 Willem II U21 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Feyenoord U21 4 14 3 +11 12
2 Cambuur U21 4 12 5 +7 7
3 Groningen U21 4 8 6 +2 7
4 De Graafschap U21 5 7 5 +2 9
5 PEC Zwolle U21 5 7 7 0 9
6 Willem II U21 4 5 9 -4 1
7 Twente / Heracles U21 5 4 12 -8 4
8 Go Ahead Eagles U21 5 4 14 -10 2
U21 Divisie 1 Netherlands. U21 Divisie 1 Predictions