Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Everton W vs Birmingham City W

Everton W vs Birmingham City W Statistics & Analysis

Everton W Everton W
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
2 0.73
1 0.73
xG Accuracy: 66%
Birmingham City W Birmingham City W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Everton W Everton W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668281

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Everton W win · Everton W 2–1 Birmingham City W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Birmingham City W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 35.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Everton W (1X2) 35.6 49.4 -13.9
Draw (1X2) 35.6 24.3 +11.3
Birmingham City W (1X2) 28.9 26.3 +2.6
Over 2.5 goals 18.1 53.3 -35.2
Under 2.5 goals 81.9 46.7 +35.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 81.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.7%. The difference — about 35.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Everton W (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.83 3.83 0.0
Birmingham City W (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FA WSL
  • Fixture: Everton W vs Birmingham City W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 35.6% · Away 28.9%
  • xG (showing): Everton W 0.73 — Birmingham City W 0.73 (total xG ≈ 1.46)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 81.9% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +35.7 pts · Est. EV: +72.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 28.4% · No 71.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (23.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 4 0 0 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 3 1 0 10
3 Chelsea W 4 3 1 0 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
5 Liverpool W 5 2 1 2 7
6 Manchester United W 5 2 1 2 7
7 Everton W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Arsenal W 4 1 2 1 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 1 2 1 5
10 West Ham W 4 1 0 3 3
11 Brighton W 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 0 2 2 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 0 2 2 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 15 2 +13 10
2 Manchester City W 4 12 4 +8 12
3 Chelsea W 4 9 1 +8 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
5 Liverpool W 5 9 6 +3 7
6 Birmingham City W 4 6 10 -4 2
7 Manchester United W 5 5 9 -4 7
8 West Ham W 4 4 7 -3 3
9 Crystal Palace W 4 4 10 -6 5
10 Brighton W 4 3 6 -3 2
11 Aston Villa W 4 3 10 -7 2
12 Arsenal W 4 2 2 0 5
13 Everton W 4 2 3 -1 6
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 1 10 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United W 5 0.2 1.2 -1.0 7
3 Manchester City W 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 — — — 10
5 Chelsea W 4 — — — 10
6 Liverpool W 5 — — — 7
7 Everton W 4 — — — 6
8 Arsenal W 4 — — — 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 — — — 5
10 West Ham W 4 — — — 3
11 Brighton W 4 — — — 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 — — — 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 — — — 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 — — — 0