Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W

Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W Statistics & Analysis

Aston Villa W Aston Villa W
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 0.78
1 0.68
xG Accuracy: 86%
Crystal Palace W Crystal Palace W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Aston Villa W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668202

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Aston Villa W 1–1 Crystal Palace W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Crystal Palace W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 37.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Aston Villa W (1X2) 38.6 52.1 -13.5
Draw (1X2) 34.9 22.8 +12.1
Crystal Palace W (1X2) 26.5 25.1 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 18.1 55.9 -37.8
Under 2.5 goals 81.9 44.1 +37.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 81.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.1%. The difference — about 37.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Aston Villa W (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Crystal Palace W (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.14 2.14 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA WSL
  • Fixture: Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 34.9% · Away 26.5%
  • xG (showing): Aston Villa W 0.78 — Crystal Palace W 0.68 (total xG ≈ 1.46)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 81.9% · Implied: 44.1% · Probability edge: +37.8 pts · Est. EV: +80.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 28.3% · No 71.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (23.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 4 0 0 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 3 1 0 10
3 Chelsea W 4 3 1 0 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
5 Liverpool W 5 2 1 2 7
6 Manchester United W 5 2 1 2 7
7 Everton W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Arsenal W 4 1 2 1 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 1 2 1 5
10 West Ham W 4 1 0 3 3
11 Brighton W 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 0 2 2 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 0 2 2 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 15 2 +13 10
2 Manchester City W 4 12 4 +8 12
3 Chelsea W 4 9 1 +8 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
5 Liverpool W 5 9 6 +3 7
6 Birmingham City W 4 6 10 -4 2
7 Manchester United W 5 5 9 -4 7
8 West Ham W 4 4 7 -3 3
9 Crystal Palace W 4 4 10 -6 5
10 Brighton W 4 3 6 -3 2
11 Aston Villa W 4 3 10 -7 2
12 Arsenal W 4 2 2 0 5
13 Everton W 4 2 3 -1 6
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 1 10 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United W 5 0.2 1.2 -1.0 7
3 Manchester City W 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 — — — 10
5 Chelsea W 4 — — — 10
6 Liverpool W 5 — — — 7
7 Everton W 4 — — — 6
8 Arsenal W 4 — — — 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 — — — 5
10 West Ham W 4 — — — 3
11 Brighton W 4 — — — 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 — — — 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 — — — 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 — — — 0