Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Tottenham Hotspur W vs London City Lionesses

Tottenham Hotspur W vs London City Lionesses Statistics & Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur W Tottenham Hotspur W
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 0.76
6 0.70
xG Accuracy: 22%
London City Lionesses London City Lionesses
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw London City Lionesses ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11668118

Closing Odds 3.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result London City Lionesses win · Tottenham Hotspur W 1–6 London City Lionesses
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 35.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tottenham Hotspur W (1X2) 33.4 36.9 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 36.2 27.3 +8.9
London City Lionesses (1X2) 30.4 35.8 -5.4
Over 2.5 goals 18.1 54.0 -35.9
Under 2.5 goals 81.9 46.0 +35.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 81.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.0%. The difference — about 35.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Tottenham Hotspur W (1X2) 2.51 2.51 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
London City Lionesses (1X2) 2.59 2.59 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FA WSL
  • Fixture: Tottenham Hotspur W vs London City Lionesses
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 36.2% · Away 30.4%
  • xG (showing): Tottenham Hotspur W 0.76 — London City Lionesses 0.7 (total xG ≈ 1.46)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 81.9% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +34.3 pts · Est. EV: +71.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 28.4% · No 71.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (23.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 4 0 0 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 3 1 0 10
3 Chelsea W 4 3 1 0 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
5 Liverpool W 5 2 1 2 7
6 Manchester United W 5 2 1 2 7
7 Everton W 4 2 0 2 6
8 Arsenal W 4 1 2 1 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 1 2 1 5
10 West Ham W 4 1 0 3 3
11 Brighton W 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 0 2 2 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 0 2 2 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 15 2 +13 10
2 Manchester City W 4 12 4 +8 12
3 Chelsea W 4 9 1 +8 10
4 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
5 Liverpool W 5 9 6 +3 7
6 Birmingham City W 4 6 10 -4 2
7 Manchester United W 5 5 9 -4 7
8 West Ham W 4 4 7 -3 3
9 Crystal Palace W 4 4 10 -6 5
10 Brighton W 4 3 6 -3 2
11 Aston Villa W 4 3 10 -7 2
12 Arsenal W 4 2 2 0 5
13 Everton W 4 2 3 -1 6
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 1 10 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United W 5 0.2 1.2 -1.0 7
3 Manchester City W 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 4 — — — 10
5 Chelsea W 4 — — — 10
6 Liverpool W 5 — — — 7
7 Everton W 4 — — — 6
8 Arsenal W 4 — — — 5
9 Crystal Palace W 4 — — — 5
10 West Ham W 4 — — — 3
11 Brighton W 4 — — — 2
12 Birmingham City W 4 — — — 2
13 Aston Villa W 4 — — — 2
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 — — — 0