Brighton W vs Aston Villa W Statistics & Analysis

Brighton W

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 85%

Aston Villa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Brighton W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672534

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Brighton W 1–1 Aston Villa W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Aston Villa W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Aston Villa W (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Brighton W (1X2)	40.5	62.8	-22.3
Draw (1X2)	29.4	21.9	+7.5
Aston Villa W (1X2)	30.1	15.3	+14.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.0	-13.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.0	+13.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on Aston Villa W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.3%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Brighton W (1X2)	1.5	1.5
Draw (1X2)	4.31	4.31
Aston Villa W (1X2)	6.15	6.15
Over 2.5 goals	1.52	1.52
Under 2.5 goals	2.48	2.48

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FA WSL
Fixture: Brighton W vs Aston Villa W
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Brighton W 1.41 — Aston Villa W 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

FA WSL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City W	4	4	0	0	12
2	London City Lionesses	4	3	0	1	9
3	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	2	1	0	7
4	Chelsea W	3	2	1	0	7
5	Everton W	3	2	0	1	6
6	Arsenal W	3	1	2	0	5
7	Liverpool W	3	1	1	1	4
8	Crystal Palace W	3	1	1	1	4
9	West Ham W	3	1	0	2	3
10	Aston Villa W	3	0	2	1	2
11	Brighton W	4	0	2	2	2
12	Birmingham City W	3	0	1	2	1
13	Manchester United W	3	0	1	2	1
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Manchester City W	4	12	4	+8	12
2	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	11	2	+9	7
3	London City Lionesses	4	9	4	+5	9
4	Chelsea W	3	8	1	+7	7
5	Liverpool W	3	7	5	+2	4
6	West Ham W	3	3	5	-2	3
7	Aston Villa W	3	3	6	-3	2
8	Brighton W	4	3	6	-3	2
9	Birmingham City W	3	3	7	-4	1
10	Everton W	3	2	1	+1	6
11	Arsenal W	3	2	1	+1	5
12	Manchester United W	3	2	8	-6	1
13	Crystal Palace W	3	1	7	-6	4
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	1	10	-9	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	London City Lionesses	4	1.2	0.2	+1.0	9
2	Manchester United W	3	0.2	1.2	-1.0	1
3	Manchester City W	4	—	—	—	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	—	—	—	7
5	Chelsea W	3	—	—	—	7
6	Everton W	3	—	—	—	6
7	Arsenal W	3	—	—	—	5
8	Liverpool W	3	—	—	—	4
9	Crystal Palace W	3	—	—	—	4
10	West Ham W	3	—	—	—	3
11	Aston Villa W	3	—	—	—	2
12	Brighton W	4	—	—	—	2
13	Birmingham City W	3	—	—	—	1
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	—	—	—	0