Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Arsenal W vs Manchester United W

Arsenal W vs Manchester United W Statistics & Analysis

Arsenal W Arsenal W
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 85%
Manchester United W Manchester United W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Arsenal W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8704638

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Arsenal W 1–1 Manchester United W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Manchester United W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Manchester United W (1X2) by about 20.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Arsenal W (1X2) 41.9 77.6 -35.8
Draw (1X2) 29.3 14.1 +15.2
Manchester United W (1X2) 28.8 8.3 +20.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.6 -18.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.4 +18.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Manchester United W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.3%. The difference — about 20.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Arsenal W (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.6 6.6 0.0
Manchester United W (1X2) 11.22 11.22 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.79 2.79 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Arsenal W; market prices Arsenal W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Arsenal W 1.44 xG vs Manchester United W 1.16 → Arsenal W 41.9%
  • Market: Arsenal W ~77.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 4 0 0 12
2 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
3 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 2 1 0 7
4 Chelsea W 3 2 1 0 7
5 Everton W 3 2 0 1 6
6 Arsenal W 3 1 2 0 5
7 Liverpool W 3 1 1 1 4
8 Crystal Palace W 3 1 1 1 4
9 West Ham W 3 1 0 2 3
10 Aston Villa W 3 0 2 1 2
11 Brighton W 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City W 3 0 1 2 1
13 Manchester United W 3 0 1 2 1
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 12 4 +8 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 11 2 +9 7
3 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
4 Chelsea W 3 8 1 +7 7
5 Liverpool W 3 7 5 +2 4
6 West Ham W 3 3 5 -2 3
7 Aston Villa W 3 3 6 -3 2
8 Brighton W 4 3 6 -3 2
9 Birmingham City W 3 3 7 -4 1
10 Everton W 3 2 1 +1 6
11 Arsenal W 3 2 1 +1 5
12 Manchester United W 3 2 8 -6 1
13 Crystal Palace W 3 1 7 -6 4
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 1 10 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United W 3 0.2 1.2 -1.0 1
3 Manchester City W 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 — — — 7
5 Chelsea W 3 — — — 7
6 Everton W 3 — — — 6
7 Arsenal W 3 — — — 5
8 Liverpool W 3 — — — 4
9 Crystal Palace W 3 — — — 4
10 West Ham W 3 — — — 3
11 Aston Villa W 3 — — — 2
12 Brighton W 4 — — — 2
13 Birmingham City W 3 — — — 1
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 — — — 0
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