Manchester City W vs Birmingham City W Statistics & Analysis

Manchester City W

Sep 06, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.51

1 1.09

xG Accuracy: 65%

Birmingham City W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Manchester City W Manchester City W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6360230

Closing Odds 1.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Manchester City W win · Manchester City W 3–1 Birmingham City W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Birmingham City W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 30.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Manchester City W (1X2)	45.3	87.5	-42.2
Draw (1X2)	28.9	8.4	+20.5
Birmingham City W (1X2)	25.8	4.0	+21.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	78.3	-30.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	21.7	+30.1
BTTS Yes	53.3	42.4	+10.9
BTTS No	46.7	57.6	-10.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 21.7%. The difference — about 30.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Manchester City W (1X2)	1.06	1.06
Draw (1X2)	11.0	11.0
Birmingham City W (1X2)	23.0	23.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.2	1.2
Under 2.5 goals	4.33	4.33
BTTS Yes	2.2	2.2
BTTS No	1.62	1.62

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Manchester City W; market prices Manchester City W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Manchester City W 1.51 xG vs Birmingham City W 1.09 → Manchester City W 45.3%
Market: Manchester City W ~87.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

FA WSL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City W	4	4	0	0	12
2	London City Lionesses	4	3	0	1	9
3	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	2	1	0	7
4	Chelsea W	3	2	1	0	7
5	Everton W	3	2	0	1	6
6	Arsenal W	3	1	2	0	5
7	Liverpool W	3	1	1	1	4
8	Crystal Palace W	3	1	1	1	4
9	West Ham W	3	1	0	2	3
10	Aston Villa W	3	0	2	1	2
11	Brighton W	4	0	2	2	2
12	Birmingham City W	3	0	1	2	1
13	Manchester United W	3	0	1	2	1
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Manchester City W	4	12	4	+8	12
2	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	11	2	+9	7
3	London City Lionesses	4	9	4	+5	9
4	Chelsea W	3	8	1	+7	7
5	Liverpool W	3	7	5	+2	4
6	West Ham W	3	3	5	-2	3
7	Aston Villa W	3	3	6	-3	2
8	Brighton W	4	3	6	-3	2
9	Birmingham City W	3	3	7	-4	1
10	Everton W	3	2	1	+1	6
11	Arsenal W	3	2	1	+1	5
12	Manchester United W	3	2	8	-6	1
13	Crystal Palace W	3	1	7	-6	4
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	1	10	-9	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	London City Lionesses	4	1.2	0.2	+1.0	9
2	Manchester United W	3	0.2	1.2	-1.0	1
3	Manchester City W	4	—	—	—	12
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	3	—	—	—	7
5	Chelsea W	3	—	—	—	7
6	Everton W	3	—	—	—	6
7	Arsenal W	3	—	—	—	5
8	Liverpool W	3	—	—	—	4
9	Crystal Palace W	3	—	—	—	4
10	West Ham W	3	—	—	—	3
11	Aston Villa W	3	—	—	—	2
12	Brighton W	4	—	—	—	2
13	Birmingham City W	3	—	—	—	1
14	Charlton Athletic W	4	—	—	—	0