Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W

Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W Statistics & Analysis

Chelsea W Chelsea W
Sep 05, 2026 - 11:35
1 1.50
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 85%
Aston Villa W Aston Villa W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chelsea W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6130444

Closing Odds 1.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Chelsea W 1–1 Aston Villa W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Aston Villa W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Chelsea W (1X2) 44.8 71.1 -26.3
Draw (1X2) 29.0 16.1 +12.8
Aston Villa W (1X2) 26.2 12.8 +13.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.6 -18.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.4 +18.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.4%. The difference — about 18.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Chelsea W (1X2) 1.27 1.27 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.6 5.6 0.0
Aston Villa W (1X2) 7.06 7.06 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.75 2.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FA WSL
  • Fixture: Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Chelsea W 1.5 — Aston Villa W 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 4 0 0 12
2 London City Lionesses 4 3 0 1 9
3 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 2 1 0 7
4 Chelsea W 3 2 1 0 7
5 Everton W 3 2 0 1 6
6 Arsenal W 3 1 2 0 5
7 Liverpool W 3 1 1 1 4
8 Crystal Palace W 3 1 1 1 4
9 West Ham W 3 1 0 2 3
10 Aston Villa W 3 0 2 1 2
11 Brighton W 4 0 2 2 2
12 Birmingham City W 3 0 1 2 1
13 Manchester United W 3 0 1 2 1
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City W 4 12 4 +8 12
2 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 11 2 +9 7
3 London City Lionesses 4 9 4 +5 9
4 Chelsea W 3 8 1 +7 7
5 Liverpool W 3 7 5 +2 4
6 West Ham W 3 3 5 -2 3
7 Aston Villa W 3 3 6 -3 2
8 Brighton W 4 3 6 -3 2
9 Birmingham City W 3 3 7 -4 1
10 Everton W 3 2 1 +1 6
11 Arsenal W 3 2 1 +1 5
12 Manchester United W 3 2 8 -6 1
13 Crystal Palace W 3 1 7 -6 4
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 1 10 -9 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 London City Lionesses 4 1.2 0.2 +1.0 9
2 Manchester United W 3 0.2 1.2 -1.0 1
3 Manchester City W 4 — — — 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur W 3 — — — 7
5 Chelsea W 3 — — — 7
6 Everton W 3 — — — 6
7 Arsenal W 3 — — — 5
8 Liverpool W 3 — — — 4
9 Crystal Palace W 3 — — — 4
10 West Ham W 3 — — — 3
11 Aston Villa W 3 — — — 2
12 Brighton W 4 — — — 2
13 Birmingham City W 3 — — — 1
14 Charlton Athletic W 4 — — — 0
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