Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Europa Conference League / FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split Statistics & Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Aug 06, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.28
5 1.32
xG Accuracy: 30%
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2669450

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Hajduk Split win · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–5 HNK Hajduk Split
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2) by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2) 34.2 24.4 +9.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.4 +3.2
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 36.1 49.2 -13.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.7 -5.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.3 +5.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.4%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 1.86 1.86 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Fixture: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.28 — HNK Hajduk Split 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
UEFA Europa Conference League UEFA Europa Conference League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0