Statistics / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Hammam-Lif

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Hammam-Lif Statistics & Analysis

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
CS Hammam-Lif CS Hammam-Lif
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160263

Closing Odds 4.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win · Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS Hammam-Lif
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CS Hammam-Lif (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 16.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1X2) 36.1 50.3 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 30.7 -1.1
CS Hammam-Lif (1X2) 34.2 19.0 +15.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 31.8 +16.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 68.2 -16.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.8%. The difference — about 16.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.98 2.98 0.0
CS Hammam-Lif (1X2) 4.82 4.82 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.92 2.92 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Hammam-Lif
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.32 — CS Hammam-Lif 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +17.3 pts · Est. EV: +36.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0