Statistics / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / AS Marsa vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

AS Marsa vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Statistics & Analysis

AS Marsa AS Marsa
Aug 29, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 49%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AS Marsa Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5153324

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · AS Marsa 0–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 18.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AS Marsa (1X2) 35.6 35.1 +0.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 35.3 -5.7
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1X2) 34.7 29.6 +5.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 30.2 +18.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 69.8 -18.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 30.2%. The difference — about 18.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
AS Marsa (1X2) 2.61 2.61 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.59 2.59 0.0
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (1X2) 3.09 3.09 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 3.07 3.07 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: AS Marsa vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): AS Marsa 1.31 — Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 32.1% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +48.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for AS Marsa & Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0