Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / Cienciano vs Botafogo

Cienciano vs Botafogo Statistics & Analysis

Cienciano Cienciano
Aug 14, 2026 - 00:30
6 1.30
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 26%
Botafogo Botafogo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cienciano Cienciano ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3224653

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cienciano win · Cienciano 6–1 Botafogo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: Cienciano vs Botafogo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.8% · Draw 30.2% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Cienciano 1.3 — Botafogo 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.52)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 52.3% · Probability edge: +1.6 pts · Est. EV: +2.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2