Statistics / Football / Japan. J2 League / Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City

Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City Statistics & Analysis

Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu
Oct 10, 2026 - 07:00
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Tochigi City Tochigi City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tochigi City Ventforet Kofu ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13182644

Closing Odds 2.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ventforet Kofu win · Ventforet Kofu 2–1 Tochigi City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ventforet Kofu (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ventforet Kofu (1X2) by about 6.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ventforet Kofu (1X2) 33.8 27.2 +6.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.5 +3.2
Tochigi City (1X2) 36.6 46.3 -9.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Ventforet Kofu (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.2%. The difference — about 6.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ventforet Kofu (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Tochigi City (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: J2 League
  • Fixture: Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Ventforet Kofu 1.27 — Tochigi City 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +9.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J2 League J2 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Omiya Ardija 10 5 5 0 20
2 Vegalta Sendai 9 6 2 1 20
3 Albirex Niigata 9 6 1 2 19
4 Kataller Toyama 9 5 2 2 17
5 Yokohama FC 10 5 2 3 17
6 Shonan Bellmare 9 4 4 1 16
7 Oita Trinita 10 3 5 2 14
8 Fujieda MYFC 10 3 4 3 13
9 Blaublitz Akita 9 3 4 2 13
10 Jubilo Iwata 10 4 1 5 13
11 Tokushima Vortis 10 4 1 5 13
12 Montedio Yamagata 9 4 0 5 12
13 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 3 3 3 12
14 Sagan Tosu 10 3 2 5 11
15 Tochigi City 10 3 1 6 10
16 Imabari 10 3 1 6 10
17 Ventforet Kofu 10 3 1 6 10
18 Vanraure Hachinohe 10 3 1 6 10
19 Iwaki 9 3 0 6 9
20 Consadole Sapporo 10 2 2 6 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Omiya Ardija 10 20 9 +11 20
2 Yokohama FC 10 19 13 +6 17
3 Kataller Toyama 9 18 9 +9 17
4 Vegalta Sendai 9 17 8 +9 20
5 Tochigi City 10 16 17 -1 10
6 Fujieda MYFC 10 13 11 +2 13
7 Albirex Niigata 9 13 13 0 19
8 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 13 13 0 12
9 Blaublitz Akita 9 12 10 +2 13
10 Jubilo Iwata 10 12 13 -1 13
11 Iwaki 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Consadole Sapporo 10 12 19 -7 8
13 Oita Trinita 10 11 8 +3 14
14 Montedio Yamagata 9 11 8 +3 12
15 Imabari 10 11 19 -8 10
16 Shonan Bellmare 9 10 8 +2 16
17 Tokushima Vortis 10 10 12 -2 13
18 Sagan Tosu 10 9 12 -3 11
19 Ventforet Kofu 10 9 18 -9 10
20 Vanraure Hachinohe 10 6 17 -11 10
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