Statistics / Football / Japan. J2 League / Omiya Ardija vs Vanraure Hachinohe

Omiya Ardija vs Vanraure Hachinohe Statistics & Analysis

Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija
Oct 10, 2026 - 05:00
3 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 60%
Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13182466

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Omiya Ardija win · Omiya Ardija 3–1 Vanraure Hachinohe
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2) by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Omiya Ardija (1X2) 39.0 60.9 -22.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 23.3 +6.3
Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2) 31.5 15.8 +15.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.8%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Omiya Ardija (1X2) 1.49 1.49 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2) 5.75 5.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: J2 League
  • Fixture: Omiya Ardija vs Vanraure Hachinohe
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Omiya Ardija 1.38 — Vanraure Hachinohe 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J2 League J2 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vegalta Sendai 9 6 2 1 20
2 Albirex Niigata 9 6 1 2 19
3 Kataller Toyama 9 5 2 2 17
4 Omiya Ardija 9 4 5 0 17
5 Yokohama FC 9 5 2 2 17
6 Shonan Bellmare 9 4 4 1 16
7 Fujieda MYFC 9 3 4 2 13
8 Blaublitz Akita 9 3 4 2 13
9 Tokushima Vortis 9 4 1 4 13
10 Montedio Yamagata 9 4 0 5 12
11 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 3 3 3 12
12 Oita Trinita 9 2 5 2 11
13 Tochigi City 9 3 1 5 10
14 Jubilo Iwata 9 3 1 5 10
15 Vanraure Hachinohe 9 3 1 5 10
16 Iwaki 9 3 0 6 9
17 Sagan Tosu 9 2 2 5 8
18 Consadole Sapporo 9 2 2 5 8
19 Imabari 9 2 1 6 7
20 Ventforet Kofu 9 2 1 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kataller Toyama 9 18 9 +9 17
2 Yokohama FC 9 18 11 +7 17
3 Vegalta Sendai 9 17 8 +9 20
4 Omiya Ardija 9 17 8 +9 17
5 Tochigi City 9 15 15 0 10
6 Fujieda MYFC 9 13 10 +3 13
7 Albirex Niigata 9 13 13 0 19
8 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 13 13 0 12
9 Blaublitz Akita 9 12 10 +2 13
10 Iwaki 9 12 17 -5 9
11 Consadole Sapporo 9 12 18 -6 8
12 Montedio Yamagata 9 11 8 +3 12
13 Jubilo Iwata 9 11 13 -2 10
14 Shonan Bellmare 9 10 8 +2 16
15 Oita Trinita 9 9 7 +2 11
16 Tokushima Vortis 9 9 10 -1 13
17 Imabari 9 9 18 -9 7
18 Sagan Tosu 9 8 12 -4 8
19 Ventforet Kofu 9 7 17 -10 7
20 Vanraure Hachinohe 9 5 14 -9 10
J2 League Japan. J2 League Predictions