Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu Statistics & Analysis

Omiya Ardija

Sep 26, 2026 - 08:00

5 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 36%

Ventforet Kofu

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10076853

Closing Odds 1.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Omiya Ardija win · Omiya Ardija 5–1 Ventforet Kofu

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ventforet Kofu (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ventforet Kofu (1X2) by about 11.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Omiya Ardija (1X2)	41.4	59.6	-18.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	22.5	+6.8
Ventforet Kofu (1X2)	29.3	17.9	+11.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.2	-7.0
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.8	+7.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Ventforet Kofu (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.9%. The difference — about 11.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Omiya Ardija (1X2)	1.59	1.59
Draw (1X2)	4.21	4.21
Ventforet Kofu (1X2)	5.29	5.29
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	2.13	2.13

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: J2 League
Fixture: Omiya Ardija vs Ventforet Kofu
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Omiya Ardija 1.43 — Ventforet Kofu 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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J2 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	8	5	2	1	17
2	Omiya Ardija	8	4	4	0	16
3	Albirex Niigata	8	5	1	2	16
4	Shonan Bellmare	8	4	3	1	15
5	Kataller Toyama	8	4	2	2	14
6	Yokohama FC	8	4	2	2	14
7	Tokushima Vortis	8	4	1	3	13
8	Montedio Yamagata	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fujieda MYFC	8	3	3	2	12
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	3	2	3	11
11	Tochigi City	8	3	1	4	10
12	Blaublitz Akita	8	2	4	2	10
13	Jubilo Iwata	8	3	1	4	10
14	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	3	1	4	10
15	Iwaki	8	3	0	5	9
16	Oita Trinita	8	1	5	2	8
17	Sagan Tosu	8	2	2	4	8
18	Ventforet Kofu	8	2	1	5	7
19	Consadole Sapporo	8	1	2	5	5
20	Imabari	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	8	16	7	+9	16
2	Kataller Toyama	8	16	8	+8	14
3	Yokohama FC	8	16	11	+5	14
4	Vegalta Sendai	8	15	7	+8	17
5	Tochigi City	8	14	13	+1	10
6	Fujieda MYFC	8	12	9	+3	12
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	12	12	0	11
8	Blaublitz Akita	8	11	10	+1	10
9	Albirex Niigata	8	11	12	-1	16
10	Iwaki	8	11	15	-4	9
11	Montedio Yamagata	8	10	6	+4	12
12	Jubilo Iwata	8	10	11	-1	10
13	Consadole Sapporo	8	10	17	-7	5
14	Shonan Bellmare	8	9	7	+2	15
15	Tokushima Vortis	8	8	8	0	13
16	Sagan Tosu	8	8	11	-3	8
17	Oita Trinita	8	7	6	+1	8
18	Imabari	8	7	17	-10	4
19	Ventforet Kofu	8	6	15	-9	7
20	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	5	12	-7	10