Tochigi City vs Vanraure Hachinohe Statistics & Analysis

Tochigi City

Aug 15, 2026 - 09:00

5 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 26%

Vanraure Hachinohe

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tochigi City Tochigi City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3338581

Closing Odds 2.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tochigi City win · Tochigi City 5–0 Vanraure Hachinohe

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tochigi City (1X2)	36.1	41.6	-5.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.4	+2.3
Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2)	34.2	31.0	+3.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.0	+3.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.0	-3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.0%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tochigi City (1X2)	2.28	2.28
Draw (1X2)	3.46	3.46
Vanraure Hachinohe (1X2)	3.06	3.06
Over 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	1.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: J2 League
Fixture: Tochigi City vs Vanraure Hachinohe
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Tochigi City 1.32 — Vanraure Hachinohe 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

J2 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vegalta Sendai	8	5	2	1	17
2	Omiya Ardija	8	4	4	0	16
3	Albirex Niigata	8	5	1	2	16
4	Shonan Bellmare	8	4	3	1	15
5	Kataller Toyama	8	4	2	2	14
6	Yokohama FC	8	4	2	2	14
7	Tokushima Vortis	8	4	1	3	13
8	Montedio Yamagata	8	4	0	4	12
9	Fujieda MYFC	8	3	3	2	12
10	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	3	2	3	11
11	Tochigi City	8	3	1	4	10
12	Blaublitz Akita	8	2	4	2	10
13	Jubilo Iwata	8	3	1	4	10
14	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	3	1	4	10
15	Iwaki	8	3	0	5	9
16	Oita Trinita	8	1	5	2	8
17	Sagan Tosu	8	2	2	4	8
18	Ventforet Kofu	8	2	1	5	7
19	Consadole Sapporo	8	1	2	5	5
20	Imabari	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Omiya Ardija	8	16	7	+9	16
2	Kataller Toyama	8	16	8	+8	14
3	Yokohama FC	8	16	11	+5	14
4	Vegalta Sendai	8	15	7	+8	17
5	Tochigi City	8	14	13	+1	10
6	Fujieda MYFC	8	12	9	+3	12
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	8	12	12	0	11
8	Blaublitz Akita	8	11	10	+1	10
9	Albirex Niigata	8	11	12	-1	16
10	Iwaki	8	11	15	-4	9
11	Montedio Yamagata	8	10	6	+4	12
12	Jubilo Iwata	8	10	11	-1	10
13	Consadole Sapporo	8	10	17	-7	5
14	Shonan Bellmare	8	9	7	+2	15
15	Tokushima Vortis	8	8	8	0	13
16	Sagan Tosu	8	8	11	-3	8
17	Oita Trinita	8	7	6	+1	8
18	Imabari	8	7	17	-10	4
19	Ventforet Kofu	8	6	15	-9	7
20	Vanraure Hachinohe	8	5	12	-7	10