Statistics / Football / Japan. J2 League / Iwaki vs Imabari

Iwaki vs Imabari Statistics & Analysis

Iwaki Iwaki
Aug 09, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 82%
Imabari Imabari
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Iwaki Iwaki ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2960357

Closing Odds 3.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Iwaki win · Iwaki 2–1 Imabari
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Imabari (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Iwaki (1X2) 41.4 43.9 -2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 30.2 -0.8
Imabari (1X2) 29.3 25.9 +3.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.6 +4.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.4 -4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.6%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Iwaki (1X2) 2.17 2.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.15 3.15 0.0
Imabari (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J2 League
  • Fixture: Iwaki vs Imabari
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Iwaki 1.43 — Imabari 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
J2 League J2 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vegalta Sendai 8 5 2 1 17
2 Omiya Ardija 8 4 4 0 16
3 Albirex Niigata 8 5 1 2 16
4 Shonan Bellmare 8 4 3 1 15
5 Kataller Toyama 8 4 2 2 14
6 Yokohama FC 8 4 2 2 14
7 Tokushima Vortis 8 4 1 3 13
8 Montedio Yamagata 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fujieda MYFC 8 3 3 2 12
10 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 3 2 3 11
11 Tochigi City 8 3 1 4 10
12 Blaublitz Akita 8 2 4 2 10
13 Jubilo Iwata 8 3 1 4 10
14 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 3 1 4 10
15 Iwaki 8 3 0 5 9
16 Oita Trinita 8 1 5 2 8
17 Sagan Tosu 8 2 2 4 8
18 Ventforet Kofu 8 2 1 5 7
19 Consadole Sapporo 8 1 2 5 5
20 Imabari 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Omiya Ardija 8 16 7 +9 16
2 Kataller Toyama 8 16 8 +8 14
3 Yokohama FC 8 16 11 +5 14
4 Vegalta Sendai 8 15 7 +8 17
5 Tochigi City 8 14 13 +1 10
6 Fujieda MYFC 8 12 9 +3 12
7 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 8 12 12 0 11
8 Blaublitz Akita 8 11 10 +1 10
9 Albirex Niigata 8 11 12 -1 16
10 Iwaki 8 11 15 -4 9
11 Montedio Yamagata 8 10 6 +4 12
12 Jubilo Iwata 8 10 11 -1 10
13 Consadole Sapporo 8 10 17 -7 5
14 Shonan Bellmare 8 9 7 +2 15
15 Tokushima Vortis 8 8 8 0 13
16 Sagan Tosu 8 8 11 -3 8
17 Oita Trinita 8 7 6 +1 8
18 Imabari 8 7 17 -10 4
19 Ventforet Kofu 8 6 15 -9 7
20 Vanraure Hachinohe 8 5 12 -7 10
J2 League Japan. J2 League Predictions